Feeding the 9 billion

 Guest author Willie Vogt, published Farm Futures story

Image 1: By Rajesh Kumar Singh, AP

Rising population challenges farmers to ‘step up,’ yet work may be harder than thought.

Any farmer who has attended a commodity group or farm group meeting in the past two or three years has heard the clarion call to feed the rising population.

The stats are stark. World population is going to increase to more than 9 billion by 2050, with the impact that global farmers will have to double food output. In fact, some statisticians figure that the amount of food to be produced in this short time period could actually equal what has been produced in the past 10,000 years.

The challenge ahead could be bigger. “I serve on the advisory committee for the Federal Reserve in Kansas City, and an economist there pointed out that the rise to 9 billion includes 2 billion more in the middle class,” says Bill Horan, Rockwell City, Iowa, and chairman of the Truth About Trade and Technology, a nonprofit advocacy group.

The global population’s growing middle class is significant because historically, Horan points out, “The first thing they want is protein — and more and better protein.” Farmers will not be feeding that larger population just with more grain.

Will Sawyer, vice president of grains, oilseeds and animal protein at Rabobank, notes that this is a key concern as experts look at population rise. “It’s a question of whether the U.S. can satisfy growing food demand in the form of meat or grain,” he notes.

Either way, global food production must rise, and Sawyer notes that countries that have historically fought use of biotech crops will be forced to “step up” to a more Western system of food production. “Food systems will have to transition away from traditional backyard production.”

Image 2: By Tim Wimbourne, Reuters

BIG CHALLENGE
Horan has a big worry about this challenge because he notes that he’s talked to a number of economists who question global agriculture’s ability to meet that middle-class need. The grain used for livestock production would outstrip capacity, according to Horan. “That makes the 2 billion rise in global population [beyond the 7 billion today] look completely different,” he notes.

He adds that seed companies pushing to double production are aiming in the right direction, but “it’s meat that’ll be the problem.” He warns that the global population could end up with some countries that can afford meat and some that can’t, which could be a moral dilemma ahead.

The other side of the coin is that global food producers are stepping up, and whether it’ll be enough will remain to be seen. But Rabobank’s Sawyer notes that he’s seeing evidence that Brazil is working out its logistics issues, which will lower its cost of production.

China is moving into Africa with major development projects to leverage agriculture production to meet growing demand for grain and protein as well.

Yet Sawyer sees that global development as good, even as the competitive position of the United States changes. “The U.S. will remain a significant player in the global market.”

LOOKING AHEAD
Horan, long an advocate for using more technology in agriculture, says, “Maybe technology is the answer.” However, he notes that better trade agreements will matter, too. “We need to be aware of the problem, so we can develop a strategy, and then we need to develop a strategic vision of how to solve the problem,” he says. “We don’t have that much time. We could be stressing the system within the next 10 years.” Farm Futures

Note: It is also important to consider that the U.S. is a leading example of technology applied in agriculture to grow higher yielding crops on less land. And, it is this technology that may help satisfy the global population’s ever increasing food demands.

Photos obtained from:
Image 1: http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-03-04/eastley-australia-food-bowl/4547422
Image 2: http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2011-10-30/world-population-hits-seven-billion/51007670/1

Feeding the World in 2050

Guest author Mark Moore, published Farm Industry News story

Conferences around the world consider how farmers will be able to feed the world’s growing population, which is expected to increase from 7 billion to 9 billion people by 2050.

Agricultural research and development will be very important, just as when it helped farmers keep up when the world’s population doubled over the last 50 years.

But the task looks more difficult ahead. Production research and development must address all types of farms, including the 400 million farms in the world with less than 5 acres each. All farms will be needed to feed the world in the future.

“There will continue to be a decreasing area of agricultural land available per person globally for food production,” says David Leaver, president of the British Institute of Agricultural Consultants. For example, in 1967 there were 4.2 acres of cropland/person, and in 2007, just 1.7 acres of cropland/person were available.

Costs and regulations

While private investment in research in the developed world has been strong, overall funding has slowed over the past two decades, especially in the public sector. Adding to this concern is the global economic situation. “When in cases of financial stress, often research and development is the first to suffer,” Leaver says.

Besides funding, there are other tough obstacles for more research and development. One is the intricate maze that a new agricultural product must negotiate to come to market. A myriad of regulatory hurdles throughout the global food chain cost companies millions of dollars to handle.

Julia Wheeler, director of research and development for DuPont Crop Protection, says, “The challenge is the cost required to successfully develop the product and the resources required to bring it to market. To be successful, we must collaborate with regulatory agencies to not only improve food production, but also maintain export opportunities.”

Streamlining and harmonizing regulations would make the entire process more efficient for not only the companies involved, but the countries involved as well.

“Recently, DuPont worked with key regulators in five countries on a Global Joint Review project, in which the regulators collaborated in reviewing the global regulatory dossier,” Wheeler says. “We found that the Global Joint Review process actually reduced the product review time, even though each country conducted its own risk assessment. That’s because by sharing information on the dossier evaluation, each country decreased duplication of effort and reduced the overall amount of work required to register the product.”

Collaboration

Another key for the future of ag research and development will be collaborative efforts among all stakeholders. Already, U.S. farmers have seen collaborations between major ag biotech companies to deliver new products (SmartStax, for example). “Collaboration will be critical to encourage discovery, development and registration of new agricultural products,” Wheeler says. “We can’t operate in a vacuum.”

Leaver is critical of what he sees as “silos,” where information is not readily exchanged among organizations and where some ag research and development currently operates. “Global food security should be the focus of all our initiatives, and we need a coordinated approach to reach that goal,” he says.

Countries such as China are seeing the need to develop a secure food supply and continue to pour a tremendous amount of resources into agricultural research and development. “China is investing a lot in agriculture, especially biotech,” Wheeler says.

But research and development efforts also must include Africa, where food security is critical. Here small farmers remain a vital part of the food supply. Investments in research and development will be crucial to help these farmers contribute to the world’s food supply.

“For 40 years, global food production has kept pace with population growth and per-capita-income growth,” Leaver says. “Agricultural research and development has been a major driver of this increase. The next 40 years will mean similar productivity growth is required to satisfy the continuing rise in food demand.”

Wheeler says removing unnecessary barriers that prevent new technologies from getting into the hands of those who need it is critical to ensure continued investment. “We are in an era of urgent challenges and unique opportunities,” she says. “We must work together to meet these challenges.”

On Halloween, Thank a Farmer

October 31 is not only Halloween, but it’s also the date that the United Nations (UN) has attributed as the day that 7 billion people will inhabit the planet.

For perspective, on average, four births and two deaths occur every second. By 2050, we’ll require 70 percent more food availability.

The UN population fund executive director said the phenomenon is “both a challenge and an opportunity.”

Perhaps no one is as affected by this event as much as the our food producers — the farmers and ranchers responsible for ensuring safe, affordable, plentiful fruits, vegetables, grains, meat and dairy products to feed the world. Producers are also responsible for other human essentials such as fiber and biofuels.

Because of technology, seed advancements and conservation tactics, our producers are doing more using less land and resources. Agricultural methods that maximize yields while mitigating agricultural impacts include reduced-till or no-till, manure management, nitrogen and fertilizer efficiency technologies. For example:

• Farmers use less fertilizer because advanced equipment provides pinpoint application and seed technologies are constantly improving efficiency
• Reduced tillage and other farm-management practices have reduced soil erosion 43 percent in 20 years
• Improvements in crop-protection products in the past 20 years have made them less toxic and more degradable
• Biotechnology allows farmers to use less synthetic pesticides

In 2008, the UN established the High-Level Task Force (HLTF) for the Global Food Security Crisis, comprising the leaders of its specialized agencies, funds and programs, as well as relevant parts of the UN Secretariat, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and the World Trade Organization. Its primary aim is to promote a comprehensive and unified response to the challenge of achieving global food security.

According to its website, HLTF “outlines activities related to meeting the immediate [food] needs, like investing in food assistance and social safety nets, as well as activities related to the longer-term structural needs, like scaling up investment in agriculture within developing countries, increasing opportunities for producers, pastoralists and fisher folk to access land, water, inputs and post-harvest technologies, focusing on the needs of smallholders, and enabling them to realize their right to food, sustain an increase in income and ensure adequate nutrition.”

The population announcement comes on the heels of significant ag policy changes to the pending 2012 Farm Bill. Several modifications to the existing crop insurance and direct payment structure are being considered that affect the strength of producers’ operations.

“But farmers in the U.S. might have been surprised that the very policy that is in place to help ensure that America’s food production system is efficient and effective – crop insurance – is again under the microscope and was recently targeted by the White House for an additional $8 billion in cuts in the next decade,” stated a recent CropLife story.

Given the milestone, it will be even more interesting to witness the outcome of America’s next Farm Bill. Whatever the result, I’m confident that our farmers and ranchers will continue to be dependable, eco-conscious food providers for years to come.

Photo obtained from: emergencyfoodsecurity.myefoods.com